Why is it necessary for BJP to lose Bihar election?

2015 cricket world cup was a disappointing affair for India. India won all their league matches, won also the quarter final. All the matches were won comprehensively without much of a scare from any team and Indian team was actually not tested for their vulnerabilities till semi final. In semifinal a determined Australia exposed all the short comings of team India and handed a heartbreaking and insulting defeat.

Now what connection does Indian politics or BJP or Bihar elections have with cricket world cup?

Though Bihar assembly election is not cricket world cup and BJP is not playing a cricket match with Nitish-Lalu grand alliance, there are some similarities.

BJP has been on a winning spree since last 3 years with wins in Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Chattisgarh, Haryana, Jharkhand and partly in Maharashtra, Punjab, AP and J&K.

Even if BJP is in a coalition government in various states, they never shied away from their ambition of being 100% on their own in those states. In J&K that seems remote possibility due to their ideology. They won almost entire Jammu but then Kashmir valley remains to be won and with all sort of happenings mostly bad, it seems highly unlikely for BJP to win a single seat in the valley.

Central government in captaincy of Mr. Narendra Modi has been taking various measures to revive the economy, few actions on black money, make in India, cleanup India, clean Ganga, etc... It is a fact that all the actions are yet to bear substantial fruits for BJP to show to the people.

However there are various happenings in the country which suggest that slowly and steadily BJP is gaining arrogance in their behavior. This is especially true in case of Maharashtra where they treat Shiv Sena in a manner as if they are not required. Interviews of CM and other BJP ministers suggest that they are least bothered about Sena. This was evident when the government did not invite Mr. Uddhav Thakeray for the stone laying function of memorial of Dr. Ambedkar. The venue was just at 10 minute drive from Matoshri and yet the invitation was not extended.

   

Similar treatment was handed to NDA member parties in Bihar. Not all parties were happy with the seat sharing formula still acceptance was almost snatched from these parties by BJP. The loyal guys like Shatrughan Sinha are kept out of the campaign which is going to hurt BJP like anything.

The captain of Bihar team, the BJP CM candidate was not announced before the elections. This is going to probably a big point as the grand alliance already has Nitish Kumar as a CM candidate.

Above all the campaigning is done by none other than PM himself. The BJP does not have a local regional face under whom they can claim to be fighting the election. Sushil Modi is a face which could have been announced but then the caste arithmetic does not fit. Moreover he looks more like a sober candidate who may not have the fire power to take on the likes of Nitish who is immensely popular among women. Most women feel they are secure under Nitish and even if Lalu has joined hands with Nitish, Nitish can keep a tight check on him.

On other hand, BJP's situation is just like team India in the world cup. They are completely leveraging on a miracle by Mr. Modi and expecting to win a tough battle. The 1.25Lac crore package announced by Modi has had little effect on people. People may tend to say, give the package to Nitish and he will do a better job for the people of Bihar.

BJP like team India did not face any tough opposition in past 3 years. Their ability to work against a formidable opposition is not tested in last 3 years. People were fedup of Congress and saw a choice of BJP and voted for them. They infact voted for none other than Modi.

BJP is in no mood to understand this and is over confident of their win. Just like team India left out Gambhir, Yuvraj, BJP team left out Shartrughan Sinha. And yet they are confident of winning.

By losing this election Mr. Amit Shah will come to terms to understand the ground reality and fast eroding support of Mr. Narendra Modi. Things will change in states like Maharashtra where partners like Shiv Sena are being looked down by BJP. The senior BJP team would have to rethink their strategy to win UP in 2017. The other states where BJP is in power would be compelled to give up controversial agenda and focus solely on development. 

To win UP, not lose other BJP ruled states and win 2019 Loksabha elections, its inevitable that BJP loses Bihar. Otherwise BJP will repeat team India's performance in cricket world cup.